Posts Tagged ‘Islamic State’

This entry is a back-up copy of my Facebook post that I originally made on 28.11.2015. For better user experience, please read, like and/or comment the original post on FB.

Let’s do something that is somewhat unscientific in its nature, yet fun and should be done for the sake of considering different views regarding the recent incident with the Russian and Turkish jets. Let’s adopt a theory that the attack on Russia SU-24 bomber by a Turkish F-16 was a pre-planned provocation and try to see which pieces of publicly available information support it.

1. First of all, it is now known that the Turkish F-16 jet fighter (!) wasn’t on a standby when they, supposedly, received information about a foreign jet moving towards their border. The F-16 has been in the air for much longer prior to the attack, circling, as if waiting to ambush something.

The attack itself was done against all the conventional protocols. Even if the SU-24 violated the Turkish airspace (although both Russian Ministry of Defence and Russian Aerospace Forces command centre say that it did not, and they present empirical data to support their version), and, according to Turks themselves, the supposed violation only happened for 17 seconds, the F-16 didn’t try to establish a direct visual contact wth the supposed intruder. They just shot it down from behind.

Moreover, the Russian Ministry of Defence says that they’ve shared their combat plans for that region (including the flightpaths, possible targets and the types of aircrafts employed during the upcoming operations) with the Americans, who, in turn, were supposed to share the information with Turkey, as Turkey is a part of the US-led anti-ISIS coalition. Russian SU-24 was expected to be seen in that region. So, the Turkish military saying that they didn’t know whose plane that was sounds rather suspicious.

Alternative explanation? Well, maybe the Turkish F-16 fighter jet (armed with advanced AIM-9X rockets) just happened to be there at that time, performing training manoeuvres, or something. And the attack (in violation of all international norms) was a result of someone from the lower chain of Turkish command just screwing up. It might have been a tragic accident that the Turkish side is now embarrassed about and, thus, does not want to apologise, blaming it all on Russians.
Everything is possible.

2. There is an interview with a Russian air-defence expert Alexey Leonkov circling the Russian Internet at the moment. In the interview, he says that two American AWACS aircrafts (one Boeing E-3 Sentry and one E-3A) were in air on that day (one took off from an airbase in Preveza, Greece, and the other one from Riyadh military airbase in Saudi Arabia). The AWACS aircrafts could have been specifically monitoring the exact locations of the Russian military jets over Syria on that day, identifying which of them are in active search for targets mode and which of them have completed their mission and returning back to the airbase (and, therefore, least likely to defend themselves):
http://regnum.ru/news/polit/2021108.html

Alternative explanation? AWACS aircraft were just performing their routine data gathering missions. US and NATO have always been gathering intel on the Russian and Syrian aviation activity in that region, so it doesn’t really imply anything specific.

3. Now, when the SU-24 got hit, both pilots managed to eject. On the ground, there were Turkmen militants waiting for them. One of the pilots, Oleg Peshkov, was shot while still in the air (again, that’s a crude violation of the Geneva convention and, therefore, should be regarded as a war crime). The other one managed to hide for 12 hours, until he got rescued by the Syrian special forces and, subsequently, brought back to the Russian military base.

The leader of the Turkmen group was identified as Alparslan Celik, a Turkish national, the son of a former mayor of Keban district in Elazig province, Turkey:
http://www.kurdishinfo.com/turkmen-commander-turns-out-to-b…

Here is his Twitter account:
https://twitter.com/celikalparslan

He’s also a member of an organisation called Grey Wolves, which is an ultra-nationalist/nazi group (essentially, it’s a Turkish version of the Right Sector):
http://ntv.livejournal.com/426110.html

It also implies connection to various Turkish security services.

There are some hints that the Grey Wolves were also involved in the Operation Gladio back in the days, a NATO-led false-flag attack campaign that brought terror upon European citizens a couple of decades ago:
http://operation-gladio.net/operation-gladio

So, in theory, it is possible that these Turkmen and Turkish ultra-nationalists still have connections to NATO and US intelligence agencies, and that their appearance at the SU-24 crash site was preplanned and coordinated (either by Turkish secret services alone or in cooperation with their Western counterparts). Why? To eliminate the Russian pilots as incident witnesses (the survivor later told the press that, contrary to what Turkey is saying, they didn’t receive any warnings) and to send a message.

Alternative explanation? Well, the Turkmen militants, supported by Turkey, have been there for long, and it just happened that a heavily armed group lead by a Turkish national was there, just below the spot when the Russian jet got hit.

4. Right after the incident, Russians sent two helicopters to rescue the pilots. They got ambushed. The Turkmen militants attacked the helicopters with American-made TOW anti-tank systems. One of the Russian marines got killed. It appears that the militants on the ground were expecting the rescue mission and were prepared to ambush it.

Alternative explanation? As above, the Turkmen militants, armed with advanced American weaponry systems, just happened to be there. It’s been a warzone, after all.

5. What surprised many was the fact that Western media TV crews (namely CNN and Fox News, all with cameras, microphones and other heavy equipment) were nearby and interviewed the Turkmen commander almost as soon as the incident happened.

Were they all there on a standby, ready to document something? Seems like it.

Alternative explanation? The Turkmen militants have been complaining that Russian Aerospace Forces target them, so a number different Western mainstream media crews were sent there to investigate. So there were just there by themselves when the unexpected incident happened.

6. The attack happened on the 24th of November, which is a rather symbolic date for Russia-Turkey history. It’s Alexander Suvorov’s birthday. Suvorov was a genius-level Russian general who won multiple wars and battles against the Ottoman Empire, becoming a historic icon of the 18th century Russian history. If the attack was indeed pre-planned, choosing the 24th of November wasn’t random. It’s a part of psychohistorical warfare, plus a symbolic message.

Alternative explanation? It’s just a coincidence.

***

Let’s sum up, shall we?

If we are to say that it was NOT a pre-planned attack, we would have to assume that that a Turkish F-16, armed with advanced AIM-9X air-to-air misses, just randomly happened to be circling near that area on that day, the two American AWACS’ were just doing their routine missions and not sharing their data with the Turks (who are officially a part of the US-led anti-ISIS coalition), the Russian SU-24 got shot down over the piece of the Syrian land controlled by Turkmen militants (with their leader being a member of Turkish neo-nazi group called Grey Wolves, a group that used to be affiliated with NATO intelligence services back in the days). Properly equipped Western TV-crews just happened to be there by a chance to interview the Turkmens on how they murdered an unarmed Russian pilot. It just happened that these militants also had American TOW systems that they readily used to attack the Russian rescue mission, killing one marine. And that it all just happened on Alexander Suvorov’s birthday. Such a long chain of coincidences. Well, it’s an active war-zone, after all, so anything is possible…

If we are to adopt a different view and say that it was a pre-planned attack (and, as demonstrated, there is an overwhelmed amount of evidence for this, on multiple levels), then what would the reasons for it be? Well at the moment, it’s not entirely clear whether it was a solely Turkish/Erdogan venture, or whether it was all planned and coordinated at higher, international levels. It could also be that Erdogan got played.

So, what’s the possible logic behind all of this? To simply create a temporal no-fly zone near Turkish border, so that ISIS could continue to sell the oil? To manipulate Russia into doing something strategically stupid? To set up NATO against Russia so that Erdogan’s family could keep performing their political and financial affairs with ISIS while Russia is distracted? To further test Russian military capabilities? To send some kind of covert message to Russia? Or to simply increase tensions so that American military-industrial complex could get better stock-market figures? Maybe it was a polyfunctional incident?
I don’t know.

Perhaps the time will tell.

Either way, someone’s playing very dangerous and irresponsible games.